Overview - Spring 2024
This edition of the report contains data for all 50 states, three territories, and the District of Columbia on general fund spending, revenue, ending balances, and rainy day funds for fiscal 2023 (actual), fiscal 2024 (estimated), and fiscal 2025 (recommended). Information on recommended changes to taxes and fees and employment compensation for fiscal 2025 is also included.
Highlights of the Spring 2024 Fiscal Survey include:
General Fund Spending
- Recommended budgets for fiscal 2025 call for general fund spending of $1.22 trillion, a 6.2 percent decrease compared to estimated levels for fiscal 2024.
- General fund spending is on track to grow 14.4 percent in fiscal 2024, largely driven by one-time expenditures of prior-year surplus funds, following an annual increase of 7.2 percent in fiscal 2023.
- Aggregate annual general fund spending growth in recent years has been considerably affected by significant fluctuations in several large states driven partially by the timing of one-time expenditures. The median nominal growth rate for general fund spending is a 10.3 percent increase in fiscal 2023, an estimated 7.6 percent increase in fiscal 2024, and a projected 1.1 percent increase in fiscal 2025 recommended budgets.
General Fund Revenue
- After the two fastest growing years for general fund revenues in Fiscal Survey history, general fund revenue decreased 1.1 percent in fiscal 2023 and is estimated to increase 0.6 percent in fiscal 2024 and further increase 1.6 percent in fiscal 2025 based on recommended budgets.
- 33 states reported fiscal 2024 general fund revenues were exceeding original projections used in their enacted budgets, with 10 states coming in below original estimates and seven states on target. At the time of data collection, current estimates for fiscal 2024 were up 1.2 percent compared to original revenue projections used in enacted budgets.
- Governors recommended net tax reductions in fiscal 2025 with a general fund revenue impact of ‑$2.5 billion (0.2 percent as a percentage of forecasted revenue for fiscal 2025).
State Balances
- Thirty-four states are on track to further increase the size of their rainy day fund balances while six states are estimating decreases in fiscal 2024. The median rainy day fund balance as a percentage of spending is expected to increase from 12.3 percent in fiscal 2023 to 13.2 percent in fiscal 2024 and 15.0 percent in recommended budgets for fiscal 2025.
- Total balances (rainy day funds + general fund ending balances) by the end of fiscal 2023 were more than 3.5 times their aggregate level in nominal dollars at the end of fiscal 2020 and represented 37.4 percent as a percentage of total general fund expenditures. As states draw down on their elevated ending balances, total balances are projected at 23.2 percent of general fund expenditures by the end of fiscal 2025, according to governors’ recommended budgets.>